What Next for LEO?

LEO has been one of the few outliers originally coming from (and, I'd say, despite the new rhetoric and development push into LeoDex and on Arbitrum LEO, still having deep roots into) the Hive ecosystem, that pumped with the alts and much more.

Other outliers may have been strongly connected to LEO as well. So... someone could say we have a winner. But not much else... yet.

The pump in LEO price, was likely as a combined result of these factors:

• an increasingly successful LeoDex, where the swap volume is a good metric of its success
• stopping LEO inflation much sooner than planned
• paying rewards from buybacks
• moving the base token from HE to an EVM (Arbitrum) - looks like quasi-free transactions on a sidechain like HE isn't convincing enough for people outside Hive to jump in; plus, recent issues showed that for a big-enough project, a token that resides on a chain with fewer issues than HE is better
• good alt price movements recently, led by ETH

But... as priced soared exponentially, hitting strong vertical pushes for a few days, it was obvious it wasn't going to last. Coupled with a wrong narrative, in my opinion, of "LEO flippening HIVE", and the (temporary?) cooldown of the uptrend in the crypto market, LEO price strongly reversed course. There are two other factors, very important as well, and they are:

• LSTR
• SURGE

the LeoStrategy main token attempting to follow the model of MicroStrategy for BTC, and another token created by LeoStrategy as a sort of convertible bond, both attracting LEO core community, in different ways.

LSTR - like MSTR - is a sort of leveraged-play on LEO. It goes up higher than LEO, but also crashes lower when the tide turns.

SURGE has two mechanisms embedded in it. One which pays a HBD dividend. Actually, I saw people can give instructions to a bot to set dividend into something else, like LSTR, if I remember well.

The second mechanism is the one which allows the conversion of 50 SURGE into 1 LSTR. If someone thinks LSTR will go up in value, then this means their SURGE will produce both weekly dividends and increase in value due to the conversion mechanism. But there's also the reverse if LSTR goes down instead of up. And we have a bear market coming... at some point.

But, in the meantime, we have this price action (in HIVE terms, but it looks quite similar in dollars):

Looks like inflows from Leostrategy isn't slowing down this roller coaster. Maybe they don't want to, because cheaper LEO, means more LEO can be purchased.

Some technical resistances are coming up for LEO, both on the HIVE chart and on the chart in dollars. I wonder if LEO price will bounce off of any of them, or we will experience something similar to last cycle, in which case, all the developments and attempts to make LEO look better for investors would be invalidated by the market. That would be unfortunate!

I still have a serious chunk of LEO, and to be honest, rather than sell some more at this level, I'll likely move most of it to Arbitrum for the USDC rewards during the bear market, if that scenario happens.

Posted Using INLEO