New Tariffs, Old Scenarios
So... Trump has spoken again. A new heat has started on the intercontinental trade war, this time with the EU. Markets reacted, as we have already seen... The EU is likely to retaliate and the thing will escalate until both sides will be cooled down by their own industries not being able to move an inch due to their renewed taxation virility.
In this context, what do you think is more likely to happen with bitcoin price in the coming weeks? Here are two possible scenarios.
The "green" scenario is very optimistic and unlikely in my opinion, unless Trump has a good night sleep and decides to pull off the new 50% tariff on the EU. I doubt that, for the time being.
The "red" one may be even too mild depending on how things escalate. The thing about price steps is they can also go down. And that will also be a "nice" head-and-shoulders formation there.
If things go wild with the tariffs, we can easily see the price of BTC drop to 84k too.
For comparison, the trade war with China started mid-February, but really ramped up to rates close to and then above 100% in April.
Let's see how Bitcoin price evolved then, when the trade war talk and action was in full force:
Right after the second vertical, the US and China reached an agreement on mutual tariffs and other trade negotiations (or were rumored to reach an agreement, which they did).
So... as much as I'd like the prices to keep going up, I think we'll have a "sell in May and go away" after all. And a renewed uptrend in the fall (or maybe even sooner, a quick and violent one - the summer rallies are quite unpredictable).
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I think the "green" scenario is more likely to play out. Probably the same playbook more or less will be employed for EU as was the case with China. Maybe a slight difference will be EU will be ready to retaliate right from the start and may not easily be open for negotiations :)
It's already a different scenario. Since everyone saw how the scenario with China played out already, the EU officials asked Trump for a delay, and he gave it. So yeah, unless we'll have other things to shake the confidence of the markets, we are still in the green scenario, but I wouldn't bet on it for a long time without a weekly dip, at least. We are in the 8th consecutive weekly green candle for BTC already.
Right, a dip will most likely happen soon. Hopefully, it's just a healthy correction before the next leg up instead of a full retracement.
I have no idea. The markets will continue to do their own things, and I honestly think its hard to predict which way it will go.
Yeah... Trump changed his mind about the 50% tariff threat. 🤣
The news definitely affected the market, but once the news is out, everything happens the first time. Now the market will recover again. I don't think it's a problem.
I see Trump changed his mind about the tariff. Well, that was bound to happen, but I thought it would be a little while, lol.
Yeah.
In the paper today I saw the term Taco = Trump Always Chickens Out. He reversed tariffs on China with little concession from them. He's a bullshitter. Apple won't make their phones in the US as they would be too expensive. I've no idea how this will affect Bitcoin. That's up to the speculators.
That's true. But the EU doesn't have the same leverage as China did, because they are in the same bucket as the US, using manufacturing from China, while with the US they have high trade volume, but few things that are indispensable or can't be found on other markets.
Their leverage against the US tariffs might be to not increase their business deals with China (or maybe even decrease it, if Trump gets his way) if the US doesn't increase the tariffs.
Price isn't always made by speculators. It can be a reaction to what happens in the world.
I don't think there'll be a drop to 84k again. There might be shark dumps to the 90k levels, and that will require some of the craziest tariff FUD, and only for a short time.
Yep, that was what I imagined in the "red" scenario, although it may happen a lot faster than in my chart, if it does. Remains to be seen.
It's crazy to think we're still in these levels lol. Just can't wait for us to be over it all.
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I think "green", we are kinda getting used to this circus, everyone spam tarrifs, then realize it's just dumb and make some agreements... This won't be different
That's possible... Certainly people have seen this before, that's why they are not panicking like before. We will see soon enough.
It is very unpredictable as policies and tariffs may occur at any time
There are two "red" scenarios in opinion: one in which the EU retaliates and we go into something like the US-China before, or the negotiations with the EU are hurried by this development without any retaliation from the EU, and they announce a result soon. In the latter case, the correction would be minimal and the uptrend would continue without any issues.
Of course, others factors could influence what's going on next. I'm only analyzing the influence of this new tariff escalation on the markets.
https://x.com/jewellery_all/status/1926943427855372416
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Thanks for sharing!
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