Grab on to Your Seats! We're Flying!
I know many have been waiting for this moment in crypto for a long time: when the bull market starts going parabolic. Many only like to call this time of the cycle bull market, even though the bull market started long ago. But it wasn't as exciting as the parabolic phase, right?
If we were to rhyme with the past, this is only stage 1 of the parabolic phase, which happens before the halving. We will likely see the bigger one later.
The question I know many are asking themselves these days is: to trade or not to trade the halving? Normally, after what is expected to be a strong push that just started, we are expected to have some pullback after the halving (and often starting before that), before the next and final parabolic phase of Bitcoin starts.
The question is, when pullback will happen, how deep will they be? Will we see something like a 30% drop again, or will ETFs soak up the offer much sooner?
I am not so sure about the ETF demand continuing to be so high during a parabolic phase. Maybe more noob investors would buy, but others will start taking profits. The ETFs already stopped having only capital flow-positive days (more buyers than sellers during a specific day), which is normal. Having a very long streak of days when inflows of capital are higher than outflows is not usual.
So, I believe if we have a strong parabolic move for halving (and it seems we will), we will likely have a strong correction as well before going into the final parabolic phase.
And ETFs will likely contribute to the correction, they won't slow down the drop until the prices become enticing enough for the expected second parabolic phase.
That will be an interesting time. Historically, when you look at halving parabolics, they no longer look like parabolics by comparison with the second ones that succeed them, where euphoria will reach uncontrollable levels. It will look more like small bumps on the road. But for us, at this moment in time, they will appear like parabolic movements. It's all about perspective. That's why people say everyone is an expert in hindsight.
If you see a big wave and that is the only thing you see, you might want to ride it. But if you know a dream wave follows, and you might miss it if you ride the first one, what do you do? I'm not a surfer, but to me, it seems like they would want to be sure to ride the dream wave.
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These are exciting times. I was a bit skeptical that we were going to have a parabolic movement, because I thought people already bought a lot at 16k-30k levels. But I was happy to be proven wrong. I just started with crypto during the last bull, so I wasn't looking at the charts and price action then. But if what you are saying happens again, then that would be wonderful.
I can't pretend to know the future, and we have different factors now that weren't present in the past, but so far the pattern was pretty consistent in the past, with minor variations (which make some difference in the short term, but not in the long term). Look here, what I found on a simple search:
The bigger wave was after the halvings so far.
Thank you for sharing this. Yeah, I can see what you mean now. It is exciting to think that these could still be the low amounts. And that could explain why BTC has been climbing in preparation for the halving.
The best thing to do for anyone who is not day trading is to have most of their investment staked earning some passive income. They can continuously take profits at the local tops while aiming to sell after new ATH for the blue chip cryptocurrencies.
In principle, I agree with you. In fact, we have to be careful about the unstaking period.
Now, what do you do if they make new ATHs now before the halving? Do you start taking profits? And if you do, do you reinvest if they drop expecting a higher top later, or what's off the table is off the table? In my opinion, once you take profits, you don't get back in within the same cycle.
I prefer to take a DCA approach this time rather than trying to predict the top. My strategies were made under the assumption that the top will happen in late 2024 or in 2025. Altcoins usually top after BTC.
I have had harsh lessons learned trying to do that. I would prefer to HODL some part of my stake while earning passive income rather than trying to catch a falling knife. If there is another top, I can take more profits later. If there isn't, I will be okay with the profits I took.
I need SPS and HIVE and both offer staking rewards. I will keep these around longer than other assets fully prepared to HODL a part of them through another bear market.
It's interesting to see but I just wonder how much it can go up. Most of the factors for the bull run have kind of been factored in to an extent. I guess the effects of the halving might not yet.
My the sharp movement on Bitcoin, a new ATH might not be out of the question before halving.
Everyone is indeed an expert in hindsight. That's when it all becomes clear and we understand what went down. Understanding the broader perspective helps us prepare for the ride of the dream wave :)
I think surfers would be very happy to catch a dream wave once every four years. :)
I am so sure that this year bullrun will actually be so much massive
Maybe. Compared to the ATH from 2014, the one from 2018 was roughly 20x. And ATH from 2021 compared to 2018 is roughly 3.3x. So we might see a further decline of the multiple. But we also have to account for the demand from ETFs, which weren't there in the past.
The only thing crypto investors always want to hear is the presence of the bull run, lol
I can see how everyone is happy
I love that!
Everyone is happy, but the happiest are the ones who prepared during the bear market.
The bull cycle has started long ago but now it feels exciting. Still waiting...
That's true. Big green candles always excite crypto people.
Hopeful but still remain cautious.
Cautious is good.
The bull market has arrived and the way we've seen Bitcoin go to 60,000, this time we may see Bitcoin cross all-time highs before halving.
This is really an exciting time to be in the crypto space and really invest as much as possible before it is actually too late