Beware of Euphoria! Just a Scaled Down Preview of What Hype Will Look Like...
It took only two waves, followed but the first vertical movement on Bitcoin to make people in the crypto space very excited. That took the price of Bitcoin from roughly 38.5k to 64k, inches away from establishing a new ATH before the halving. That's a 66% price increase in a month and a week, so the excitement is understandable.
So, if you see people already euphoric about this appreciation and you still keep it together and seem lucid, observe well, because at some point euphoria will catch you and you most likely won't be able to think straight.
Let's say you bought a little Bitcoin at 16k (I did, so probably enough others did too). If Bitcoin reaches 160k this cycle and you don't sell by then (I won't risk betting on that, or maybe just a little), that's 10x on Bitcoin, without leverage.
Of course, that is an extreme case. Let's say you bought at 27k and Bitcoin's ATH this cycle will be 95k, not even 100k. That's 3.5x on Bitcoin.
From 38.5k to 64k we have 0.66x and people get excited. Imagine at 3,5x! Imagine at 10x! Do you think you won't? You are wrong, I can tell you that.
I'm not the one to offer advice on what to do when you get into such a situation. I haven't gone through a bull market successfully, from my point of view, even if I always had more in dollar terms (thank you, Splinterlands!) since the bottom of the previous bear market (during this bear market included), but I still consider I haven't played the previous bull market(s) well.
What may work is having a well-conceived and flexible (but not too flexible) plan, and forcing yourself to stick to it even during the euphoric moments. The question is, will you? Will I? And if we do, will the plan be good or those who play it more or less by the ear will do better?
Whatever the case may be, I'll follow my plan during this bull market. We'll see how well it turns out to be in the end.
Something else that is very important, in my opinion, is to ignore all price prediction posts for Bitcoin or alts, especially the outrageous ones because they are the ones that build up hype the most. And if you haven't seen enough of them yet, you will flooded by such predictions after halving (not immediately). That means including the two numbers I added in my post as potential Bitcoin ATHs this cycle, for calculation purposes.
Want to check out my collection of posts?
It's a good way to pick what interests you.
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I'm not sure you are bullish enough, this is a mega cycle this time! It's going just up from now 😅😉
Right, lol! 🤣
Wild predictions tend to get to me lol, and the mind begins to fantasize about different possibilities. I think the euphoria can be very contagious but we have to find something to hold on to and not be overly influenced by it. Having a good or solid plan to implement is really important during these times.
They used to get to me too. In fact, they are probably the reason why I failed (in my opinion) during the last bull market, besides not having a solid and well-defined plan. My thinking back then hearing all the outrageous predictions for the price of Bitcoin, made me think it won't stop below 100k. So thought many others, and we were all wrong. There are more elements to take into consideration besides one or more price target(s).
Very true! There are other elements to take into account apart from price targets. I think the wild predictions create an anchor point in our minds about exiting later(instead of sticking with the plan) to earn more profits.
This is a good reminder. In stocks, people make dumb decisions because they don't follow their plan. So I would assume there is even more risk of that happening here, because the price movements are so high and quick. As I am writing this, BTC went lower, but Hive has been going higher.
HIVE has often been lagging when bulls push strongly upward. BTC may be resting. I don't think it's over yet before halving, but a short consolidation of a few days wouldn't hurt.
It's definitely looking bullish for BTC. I wonder just how far it will go this time around.
I don't know, we will see. It's my impression it will make another ATH before the halving event.
It is expected that at this season we are now, we will be seeing a lot of token moving up rapidly
Well, that's what happens in a bull market... :)
I just feel the bull season is yet to start, hahaha
We’re still going to experience more crazy bulls than this
Yet to start? 😀 There isn't really an official start. But I guess what we had before 38k was a pre-season, now we are heating up, then maybe we will cool off a bit, and then maybe we'll run with all engines at 100%. Just a likely scenario, not set in stone.
I have a plan and I'm sticking with it... staying focused is a necessity!
That's the best approach to have from my experience. But not everyone is like us, so, maybe for others it works out better something different.
Maybe ... the beautiful thing about crypto is that one truly can find one's own path ... but the cruel thing about crypto is that the investment principles you don't know can hit so, so hard... it's an adventure!
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So, we are in the real bully run🥰
I guess you can call it like that. I prefer calling it phase 2 of the bull market.
That's right, this time the price has gone up a lot so we have to be very careful and the target this time is 1.5 lac dollars of Bitcoin and we will see if this time we can see it come true.
I suppose we all have our targets. If we don't get carried away by emotions, maybe we even do a great job this time around.
Yeah you are right.
Time is getting closer
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We will be seeing a lot of trends moving upward recently and it is just a matter of time before we start seeing more been witnessed
Actually it's still surprisingly quiet in the terms of social media and chit-chat among friends at this point. So I believe we are still nowhere near ATHs yet. Let's see.
I agree. Either the masses became smarter (doubtful!), or we still have a long way to go.
Hello, @gadrian. It's so true how one's decision making can become distorted and unrealistic when euphoria sets in. One has to be very careful in decision making or put it off until the hype and over excitement is over.
Great advice @gadrain and thank you! Have a great week ahead. Barb !BBH !CTP #ctp
"So, if you see people already euphoric about this appreciation and you still keep it together and seem lucid, observe well, because at some point euphoria will catch you and you most likely won't be able to think straight."
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