2021 Was a Bit Different...

Human memory is quite unreliable, even at its prime. We never memorize facts, we remember our own interpretation of the facts, after they've been subjected to our own biases, filters, relations with other events, impressions, and a process of forgetfulness or the distortion of the memory.

This is an interesting experiment... With a friend or family member with whom you participated at the same event in the past, try to remember the facts. You will see each of you will remember bits of the facts, sometimes in a quite different way. But when they are evoked by your friend, some of the elements you didn't remember come back to you as well, and vice versa. Probably not all of them.

Nowadays people seem quite torn if we are still in a bull market or we entered a bear market. I have the same doubts as most people.

With that in mind, I wanted to make a trip to the past, and see what happened around this date in 2021. What were the sentiments back then... Luckily, we have a reliable, immutable witness of the events of the past: the Hive blockchain.

My initial idea was to go to a few prominent accounts and see their history to that date (by the way, do you know of a way to see posts between two dates, other than by manually creating a query? it shouldn't be too problematic for front ends to have that, with the HAF database, instead of directly querying the blockchain).

Then, I thought I should go to an account posting about TA quite regularly, and if things are unclear, to go to other accounts.

So, I checked the posting history of @tobetada, who does that. Look at his chart from February 22nd, during one of the "normal" BTC crashes in the bull market, and how the market was back then.

Wasn't that pretty that ascending channel, despite the severe correction? It surely was!

We are not as fortunate to see something like this nowadays...

I checked future posts too, and everything was up, up, up... It is true, we should remember, 2021 had two tops for BTC, with the first one in April, and the second one in November. See below:

Any similitude, other than the timing? I'd say there might be. Will have some something similar, with two tops, the first one had in January this year instead of April? In that case, when will the second top be?

I hear people speaking about an extension of the bull market to 2026. What if we are still in the bull market (in the valley between the two tops), but the second top will come sooner than last time? Everything was in a hurry this cycle. ATH on BTC before halving, first top at the beginning of 2025, why wouldn't the second top (if we will have something like that) come sooner too?

There were roughly 6 months between the two tops in 2021. That would make it around July-August for the top this cycle?

What did Trump say? That he wants stablecoin legislation by August...

Everything is speculation, of course.

Posted Using INLEO