Up or Down?

Last week was... eventful in the crypto market, wasn't it? The kind that will be remembered and brought up in future arguments.

We need to ask ourselves... Is this the cycle where almost all historically verified cycle indicators—the ones that crypto investors have taken for years almost for granted—would be invalidated one by one?

Let's only consider a few of them:

• it's for the first time in crypto history when BTC made an ATH before its halving event, pushed by the ETF inflows after being approved at the beginning of last year
• so far it looks like year 3 of the cycle was much better than year 4 might be, if we don't close the year with a spectacular end of Q4
• if bear market didn't just started, it would be for the first time in history when it would start well after 540 days after BTC halving (many have been quite convinced of the alternative of a prolonged bull, at least to the year end, if not to Q1, and the most optimists to Q3 next year - not sure how this week may have changed their opinions)
• this year (and I believe last year too) we had a RektUptember, and we will see about Uptober, but what started strongly was crushed last week; if I remember well, other months with "traditional" directions didn't follow the same rules as before
• instead of retail jumping onboard the crypto train during the final year of the cycle, they went to gold; did gold steal crypto's euphoric end? that would be quite a revenge!
• institutional investors, however, constantly push into select crypto assets, mainly bitcoin; but they don't FOMO like retail do, as we can see from year 4 of the cycle
• it's the first time in crypto history when a bull market coincides with major global economic and geopolitical issues and shifts
• there are many voices considering that at least the bitcoin cycle is dead, or it is replaced by a cycle of a different nature (rotation of liquidity), rather than by the bitcoin halving event, something that is more symbolic than influential nowadays, with almost all bitcoin mined already
• the BTC price correlation with the M2 supply - if we don't have an explosive end of Q4, the gap is getting higher already - but here's where gold is above the chart of M2 supply and Bitcoin is below, and we might see a switch of the smart capital between the two

This is the correlation between BTC and M2 supply:

Source
and this is the correlation between gold and M2 supply:

Source
Do you remark what previously happened when gold was so high compared to M2 supply?

And finally, let's see the weekly BTC price, and the SMA50, 100 & 200.

See how all averages are going up, and shorter term SMAs are above the longer term SMAs? Also, very important, see what happened during this cycle when the weekly chart touched or briefly went through the SMA50? So... if BTC price doesn't go and stay below SMA50, the uptrend might be still intact. For how long? Hard to say. That could still mean a red week next week, before going up again.

One more article you might want check out. If John Bollinger is right (haha, I didn't know he is still actively analyzing the markets, crypto even less), maybe we'll have a (selective?) alt season, after all?

And that without even talking about many news about fundamental changes to the crypto space that is likely to bring in a lot of capital. It's true, those investments will be targeted, and in many cases giants prefer to build their own infrastructure and launch their own assets. But one thing over another, despite asking myself some questions too because of the coincidence of the market turn with the period where 540 days from bitcoin halving passed, it looks to me that chances are that it is more likely to continue the uptrend, although we need to consider there are many variations compared to previous cycles, some intentionally introduced to toy with those relying on history rhyming, others because institutional investors follow different patterns and have different triggers / objectives than retail, and also, because leverage started to outgrow spot investments in crypto (maybe not these days after the recent washout).