Is it profitable to upgrade to gold? read it here! [ESP-ENG]
¡Hola a todos y bienvenidos a un nuevo post!
Como veras en la siguiente tabla, he hecho una serie completa de post sobre mazos competitivos para el rango Plata, me gustaria hacer lo mismo para Rango Oro que es lo que estoy empezando a querer jugar ahora pero primero me surge una duda que tengo que responderme y aprovechar para compartirlo con los demas.
¿Es rentable jugar en oro?
Vamos a tratar de responder esa incognita en este post, asi que ponganse comodos y ¡Comencemos!
Hello everyone and welcome to a new post!
As you will see in the following table below, I have made a complete series of posts on my Hive account about all competitive decks for Silver Rank, I would like to do the same for Gold Rank which is what I am starting to want to play now but first I have a question that I have to answer and take this opportunity to share it with others.
Is it profitable play in gold?
We are going to try to answer that question in this post, so make yourselves comfortable and let's start!
| Fire | Water | Earth | Life | Death | Dragon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| click here ☑ | click here ☑ | click here ☑ | click here ☑ | click here ☑ | click here |
Primero, los gastos.
Si leiste mis posts anteriores sabrás que el Splinter que mas me gusta jugar en Plata es Muerte asi que ese es el que voy a utilizar para el ejemplo en este post. Estoy calculando rentas con las cartas que yo se que voy a utilizar para jugar y ser competitivo, por eso las alquilo a su nivel maximo para su liga, si buscara solo CP estos montos serian muchisimo mas bajos pero en su defecto, ganaria muy pocas batallas y me costaria bastante estar en rango Oro.
IMPORTANTE, esto son solo rentas.
Hablar de comprar estas cartas es ya hablar de miles de $.
¿Se puede promediar el mazo? la verdad es que si, hay cartas que podrias rentar o comprar mas economicas en niveles mas bajos y que servirian igual, pero eso queda a criterio de cada jugador. Yo estoy tomando este enfoque por que es asi como me gusta jugar. Entonces...
First, the costs.
If you read my previous posts you will know that the Splinter I like to play the most in Silver is Deathwing so that's the one I'm going to use for the example in this post. I am calculating rents with the cards that I know I will use to play and be competitive, that's why I rent them at their maximum level for their league, if I were looking for CP only these amounts would be much lower but otherwise, I would win very few battles and it would cost me a lot to be in Gold rank.
IMPORTANT, these are only rentals.
Talking about buying these cards is already talking about thousands of $.
Can the deck be averaged? the truth is that yes, there are cards that you could rent or buy cheaper at lower levels and that would serve the same, but that is at the discretion of each player. I'm taking this approach because that's how I like to play. So...
Analicemos esta imagen.
Primero que nada, hablamos de 16.988,22 DEC para una temporada entera con este mazo, un mazo top Oro de Muerte + Neutral con el que seras muy competitivo.
Esto ahora mismo son 27,88$ con el precio actual del DEC que es de 0.001599$.
Y hablando de CP, este mazo te va a otorgar 131.408 puntos de Poder, que te hará estar en el medio de Oro 3 y Oro 2.
¿Es completamente necesario rentar asi el mazo? como dije ya, no lo es. Puedes competir con incluso la mitad de los niveles de estas cartas y creo que para jugar en Oro 3 seria justo hacerlo, como se suele decir, haz tus propias investigaciones, esto no es un consejo de inversion.
Ten en cuenta tambien las ventajas y desventajas. ¿Que ventajas tiene este mazo? que el top de su liga, no hay cartas mas fuertes que estas en este mazo y eso se traduce en una capacidad de competir MUY alta, vas a obtener muchas victorias.
¿Una desventaja? es un solo Splinter y si por mala suerte no lo puedes usar por una regla de la batalla, quedaras sin nada que hacer con cartas de nivel 1.
¿Que recomiendo yo? tener varios mazos regulares que ronden el Top Plata, por casi 17K DEC podrias alquilarte en promedio 4 mazos distintos de Top Plata, y ahora hay tanto jugador en Oro con cartas de nivel 1 que diria que incluso hasta serias bastante competitivo, eso es algo que se puede aprovechar bien.
Let's analyze this image.
First of all, we are talking about 16,988.22 DEC for a whole season with this deck, a top Death + Neutral Gold deck with which you will be very competitive.
That's $27.88 right now at the current DEC price of $0.001599.
And speaking of CP, this deck is going to grant you 131,408 Power points, which will put you in the middle of Gold 3 and Gold 2.
Is it completely necessary to rent the entire level cap deck like this? As I said before, no, it is not. You can compete really decent with even half the levels of these mentioned cards and I think to play Gold 3 it would be fair to do so, as they say, do your own research, this is not an investment advice.
Also keep in mind the advantages and disadvantages, what advantages does this deck have? it is top of its league, there are no cards stronger than these in this deck and that translates into a VERY high competitive ability, you are going to get a lot of wins.
A disadvantage? it's a single Splinter and if by bad luck you can't use it because of a battle rule, you will be left with nothing to do with level 1 cards.
What do I recommend? to have several regular decks around Top Silver, for almost 17K DEC you could rent on average 4 different Top Silver decks, and now there are so many players in Gold with level 1 cards that I would say that even you would be quite competitive, that is something that can be well exploited.
Jugadores en Plata I con solo cartas de nivel 1. Esto es algo muy recurrente en las ultimas temporadas y te puedes aprovechar de eso.
Segundo, Las Ganancias.
Esta es la parte difícil de calcular, ya de por si calcular gastos es un poco efimero porque depende del mercado y su fluctuacion pero en ganancias entran en juego dos factores que intervienen uno con el otro.
Probabilidad y Estadistica.
Players in Silver I with only level 1 cards. This is something you will see very recurrent in the last seasons and you can take advantage of it.
Second, Profits.
This is the difficult part to calculate, already calculating expenses is a bit ephemeral because it depends on the market and its fluctuation but in earnings two factors come into play that intervene one with the other.
Probability and Statistics.
Segun los datos que arroja Splintercards cada Quest Diaria nos dara premios por un valor de 0.687$ y en toda la temporada obtenemos un total de 90 Cofres (+22 al final de la misma) si empezamos en Oro, esto son 12.81$ por una temporada entera. Aqui es donde entra la probabilidad y la suerte. Como veras esta recompensa es menos de lo necesario para armarte un mazo top para competir en Oro, asi que es justo decir que esta es una apuesta arriesgada.
- ¿Que es lo que compensa entonces?
La probabilidad de sacar buenas recompensas por encima del promedio, cartas epicas, doradas o legendarias o incluso packs de Chaos Legion que tienen 1% de chance de salir en cada cofre.
Esto no es acumulativo y eso es algo que debemos entender de la probabilidad, cada cofre es unico en eso y que un cofre tenga 1% de probabilidad de arrojar un pack no quiere decir que al abrir 100 cofres te va a salir uno, se podria calcular ese estimado, si... pero hacer toda una operacion matematica por algo que ''podria pasar'' me parece a mi una perdida de tiempo hablando del juego en si, pero quien sabe...
En fin, sigamos. Aqui debajo dejo algunas recompensas mias o de algunos colegas que colaboraron en esta pequeña investigacion:
But well, according to the data provided by Splintercards Site each Daily Quest will give us Rewards with a worth of 0.687$ and in the whole season we get a total of 90 Chests (+22 at the end of the season) if we start in Gold from the day 1, this is a total value of 12.81$ for a whole season of 15 days. This is where probability and luck come in. As you can see this reward is less than what is needed to build a top deck to compete in Gold, so it is fair to say that this is a long shot.
- What is the payoff then?
Well, in all of this, the possible payoff is the probability of getting above average good rewards with epic, gold or legendary cards or even Chaos Legion packs that have a 1% chance to be in every chest.
This is not cumulative and that is something that we must understand about the probability, each chest is unique in that and that a chest has 1% chance of dropping a pack does not mean that when you open 100 chests you will get one, you could calculate that estimate, yes ... but doing a whole mathematical operation for something that ''could happen'' seems to me a waste of time talking about the game itself, but who knows ...
Anyway, let's go on. Here below I leave some rewards from me or from some colleagues who collaborated in this little research:
Para esta Quest decidi comprar una mision de pocion y este fue el resultado: Cartas y una pocion por un valor actual total de 0,408$ y 663 DEC (1.13 Hives).
For this Quest I decided to buy a potion mission and this was the result: Cards and a potion for a total current value of 0,408$ and 663 DEC (1.13 Hives).
Esta fue una quest de mi compañero de clan @jats-0, bastante buena la verdad. Casi 55$ que es mas doble del estimado que yo mencione arriba para estar en Oro, esta probabilidad es la que menciono yo en este post.
This was a quest from my clanmate @jats-0, pretty good actually. Almost 55$ which is more than double the estimate I mentioned above to be in Gold, this probability is the one I mention in this post.
Mis Conclusiones.
Siempre puedes correr con suerte pero el que invierte con sabiduria sabe que apostar a la suerte no es conveniente y quizas es por eso que el equipo de Splinterlands esta trabajando en mejorar el sistema de recompensas. Todo esto que escribire a continuacion es MI opinion, personal, que quizas sea correcta o incorrecta, estoy abierto al debate, claramente. Mira esta imagen:
My Conclusions.
In this game you can always run with a very good luck but the one who knows how invests wisely knows that betting on good luck is not convenient for finances and maybe that's why the Splinterlands team is working on improving the reward system. All this I will write below is MY opinion, personal, which may be right or wrong, I am open to debate, clearly. Look at this image:
Solo el set de Chaos Legion para rango oro vale ahora mismo unos 4300$ con un CP de 191,900 (muy cerca de Oro I).
4300 dolares son 400 bots en Bronce que una inversion de los 300$ restantes farmearian 400 cofres diarios, si, cofres de bronce I, pero 400 por dia es muchisimo mas que 6 y las probabilidades no cambian tanto como para no pensarlo. Y la cosa no acaba ahi, por que haciendo calculos a pura estimacion del mercado actual podrias armar con aproximadamente 110$ un bot para que juegue en Plata III, podrias tener a 39 bots que a diario farmeen 78 cofres de Plata por dia. Cofres que tienen practicamente la misma probabilidad de los cofres de Oro.
¿Que preferirias tu? ¿Obtener 6 cofres en Oro por dia (Y quizas, jugando tu) o 78 en Plata sin tener que si quiera sentarte en el PC o usar tu movil para jugar?
Creo que ese trabajo de actualizacion de las recompensas debe hacerse pronto y muy bien porque hay mucha gente que ve esto como una inversion y no como un juego, y es que hay que invertir dinero (y bastante) para jugar en Oro y con recompensas tan bajas en comparacion a lo que se podria obtener con el mismo dinero en un rango mas bajo, yo en lo personal iria por el beneficio economico mas que por ganar partidas si invirtiera mas de 4K $.
The Chaos Legion set alone for gold rank is worth about 4300$ right now with a CP of 191,900 (very close to Gold I).
4.300 dollars can be also 400 bots accounts in Bronze that an investment of the remaining 300$ would farm 400 daily chests, yes, bronze I chests, but 400 per day is much more than 6 and the probabilities do not change so much as not to think about it. And the thing does not end there, think higher, because if you make calculations with pure estimation of the current market you could build with approximately 110$ a bot to play in Silver III, you could have 39 bots that daily farm 78 Silver chests per day. Chests that have practically the same probability as Gold chests.
Would you rather get 6 chests in Gold per day (playing yourself) or 78 in Silver without even having to sit at the PC or use your mobile phone to play?
I think all this announced work of updating the rewards should be done soon and very well because there are many people who see this as an investment and not as a game, and is that you have to invest money (and quite a lot) to play in Gold and with rewards so low compared to what you could get with the same money in a lower rank, I personally would go for the economic benefit rather than to win games if I invested more than 4K $.
No estoy en contra de los bots ni nada por el estilo, quiero dejar eso claro. es solo que me parece curioso analizar como esta funcionando actualmente el balance entre jugar y ganar, y es que practicamente no veo ningun incentivo por solo apuntar a jugar bien a menos que realmente ames tanto este juego como para invertir 5K$ sin esperar una retribucion proxima. Por que hablando de probabilidades medidas, con tus recompensas en Oro ganarias en promedio 307,44$ anuales, te tardarias casi 14 años en recuperar tu inversion de 4300$...
¿Que seguramente los vas a recuperar antes? Pues es muy probable que si, no se puede tener tanta mala suerte junta pero habiendo leido todos estos datos... ¿Quieres apostar a tu probabilidad? seguramente no.
Y ojo, quiero aclarar tambien que no estoy creando Hate hacia Splinterlands, a mi me encanta el juego, solo doy una opinion muy realista acerca de algo que creo que el juego actualmente hace mal y es que no veo mucho sentido en que un cofre de Oro te de 1 DEC como recompensa y que un cofre en Bronce III pueda tener chances de farmear una Legendaria Dorada... tiene pocas chances, si, pero las tiene. Y si las comparas con las chances que tiene un cofre dorado de hacer lo mismo, no hay mucha diferencia real.
Yo estoy deseando con ansias esta actualizacion de las recompensas y sobre todo los nuevos formatos Modern.
¡INSISTO! ESTO NO ES HATE.
Hay muchos datos que me estoy dejando por fuera aqui, por ejemplo el Airdrop de SPS que podrias bien vender para sacarle ganancia diaria o acumularlos para obtener vouchers y ademas soy de los que piensan que este juego esta muy bien planeado a futuro, aunque si veo que ahora mismo el sistema de recompensas no compensa al hecho de que se puedan tener tantas multicuentas y es justo lo que el equipo de Splinterlands está arreglando.
Este ha sido todo mi post, les agradezco por haber llegado hasta aqui, si quieres dar tu opinion deja un comentario y armemos debate y no olvides seguirme ¡Saludos!
I'm not against bots or anything like that, I want to make that clear. I just find it curious to analyze how the balance between playing and winning is currently working, and I see practically no incentive to just aim to play well unless you really love this game so much to invest 5K$ without expecting a close payback. Because speaking of measured probabilities, with your rewards in Gold you would earn on average $307.44 per year, it would take you almost 14 years to recover your investment of $4300....
That surely you are going to recover it before? Well it is very likely yes, you can't have so much bad luck together but having read all this data.... Do you want to bet on your probability? surely not.
And let's be clear on something, I want to clarify that I'm not trying of creating hate around Splinterlands, I love the game, I just give a very realistic opinion about something that I think the game currently does wrong and that is that I don't see much sense in a Gold chest giving you 1 DEC as a reward and that a Bronze III chest can have chances to farm a Golden Legendary... it has few chances, yes, but it has them. And if you compare them to the chances a gold chest has to do the same, there's not much real difference.
I'm really looking forward to this update of the rewards and especially the new Modern formats.
AND I INSIST! THIS IS NOT HATE.
There is a lot of data ands variables that I am leaving out here, for example the SPS Airdrop that you could either sell for daily profit or accumulate them to get vouchers and I am also one of those who think that this game is very well planned for the future, although I see that right now the reward system does not compensate for the fact that you can have so many multiaccounts and that is just what the Splinterlands team is fixing.
This has been all my post, I thank you for having come this far, if you want to give your opinion leave a comment and let's have a debate and don't forget to follow me Greetings!
Si eres hispano y quieres unirte a un clan haz click aqui
All game images are taken from the official game website and Splintercards, credits to whom it may concern.
The people doing V2K with remote neural monitoring want me to believe this lady @battleaxe is an operator. She is involved deeply with her group and @fyrstikken . Her discord is Battleaxe#1003. I cant prove she is the one directly doing the V2K and RNM. Doing it requires more than one person at the least. It cant be done alone. She cant prove she is not one of the ones doing it. I was drugged in my home covertly, it ended badly. They have tried to kill me and are still trying to kill me. I bet nobody does anything at all. Ask @battleaxe to prove it. I bet she wont. They want me to believe the V2K and RNM in me is being broadcast from her location. And what the fuck is "HOMELAND SECURITY" doing about this shit? I think stumbling over their own dicks maybe? Just like they did and are doing with the Havana Syndrome.
They are reckless and should have shown the proper media what they had before taking me hostage for 5 years.
https://peakd.com/gangstalking/@acousticpulses/electronic-terrorism-and-gaslighting--if-you-downvote-this-post-you-are-part-of-the-problem
Its a terrorist act on American soil while some yawn and say its not real or Im a mental case. Many know its real. This is an ignored detrimental to humanity domestic threat. Ask informed soldiers in the American military what their oath is and tell them about the day you asked me why. Nobody has I guess. Maybe someone told ill informed soldiers they cant protect America from military leaders in control with ill intent. How do we protect locked up soldiers from telling the truth?
https://ecency.com/fyrstikken/@fairandbalanced/i-am-the-only-motherfucker-on-the-internet-pointing-to-a-direct-source-for-voice-to-skull-electronic-terrorism
https://twitter.com/Emevele_/status/1513600892108484608
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Thanks for sharing! - @yonilkar
Excellent read. I agree with your conclusions that unless they change the rewards system (for the better), it will not equal the investment necessary to play. The one piece missing from your analysis which is impactful is taking part in tournies. Obviously difficult to put a $ value on based on placement. Sharing this on Splinterlands Digest Twitter.
That's right, as a player we will always prefer to play ourselves but you have to look at it from an investor's point of view and think about it before putting the money in there, that's why I think they should incentivize that, better prizes at higher leagues.
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Yo preferiría ir jugando y subiendo de ligas (es lo que hago) pero entiendo que la gente quiera exprimir al sistema con los bots, y por ahí he leído que cuando habían pocos jugadores tardabas bastante tiempo para encontrar contrincante. Lo bueno de estar en un "sistema vivo" que se vaya adaptando al medio, es que poco a poco se va premiando ir subiendo, con sobres u otros premios.
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Igual yo, a mi me gusta el juego pero debo pensarlo bien porque estoy invirtiendo mi dinero en el, si fuese todo gratis iria 100% a ser lo mas competitivo posible pero ese no es el caso, es un tema que se tiene que estudiar bien, lo que me alegra es que el equipo de Splinterlands ya está trabajando en reparar esto, se vienen muy buenos cambios.
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