At These Prices, It Is More Profitable to Mine SPS Than to Sell Midnight Potions
Ok... I've got the numbers after switching one of my Aura producing plots back to SPS mining.
Since I made the switch, the price of Midnight potions continued to go down. I missed the window to sell the remainder of mine when they briefly got pumped after that, but that's ok. I don't mind even if I hold them. I will eventually need them anyway sooner or later.
As I learned from @doombot75 in the comments section of my previous post on the subject, while aura is soulbound, what it will produce for the following use cases (raffle tickets and auction points) will be tradable, and that's a good thing for having more Aura produced that can be crafted into something with a fair value at certain moments in time.
Now, I'll share my numbers and calculations with you.
This is the amount of SPS I'm mining hourly on that plot:
So, 3.057 SPS / hour, or 513.576 SPS / week.
I forgot to take a screenshot with my aura production for the same plot, but it was more than 34 Aura / hour, from my memory. Let's say 34. Meaning 5712 Aura / week. That would result in almost 143 Midnight potions, so let's say 143.
Here are the lowest prices of Midnight potions on the market:
Let's be generous, and call $0.03 the lowest price, even though there are sell orders below that.
At $0.03, 143 Midnight potions would be worth $4.29, or in DEC (with the price of DEC at $0,0009717), that's 4415 DEC. Let's remember that: 4415 DEC.
Now, the price is SPS is $0.01001. Let's call it $0.01 for simplification. If I were to sell the weekly production of 513.576 SPS at $0.01 and swap it to DEC, that would be 5285 DEC. That's almost 20% higher than what I would receive by selling Midnight potions (and I overvalued those at $0.03 compared to the lowest price of $0.028 on the market).
If we were to consider things as a snapshot in time, mining SPS is more profitable than selling Midnight potions. Now.
But any change in:
- the price of Midnight potions
- the price of SPS
- the total and the plot's PP allocated to Aura production
- the total and the plot's PP allocated to mining SPS
- how often you claim and sell and the price at which you do it
can make this a very fluid situation. So, a week from now the situation could be entirely different. Even a few days or hours from now could be different.
But we can't really make changes so often because they are costly. They either cost production time (24h) and grain, or they cost time crystals, so if we make changes, we'd better have in mind at least a few weeks without any adjustments or a very high profit on a short time to compensate for switching worksites.
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I am still producing Aura but agree that Midnight Potions are likely no longer worth crafting at these prices. However, I am preparing for the Raffle and Auction points coming for the Pickle card before shifting back to Research. My production costs are low so I could still sell at these prices for a profit if I wanted to to but prefer to not add to the oversupply at the moment.
I am still producing some Aura too, and haven't been crafting it to Midnight potions for a while now. Let's hope the Raffle and Auction points will bring another boost in the way we can make Land profitable. But they will be short-lived too.
Yeah, I haven't considered production costs since I am self-sustainable on land and it would only cost me production time to sell at these prices, but it is more profitable to mine SPS at the moment. Maybe I should calculate to see how much would be the production costs for this plot I switched to SPS if I were to buy the resources from the market. It's a good info to know to have a baseline.
The website from Beaker007 allows you to pull all the resources and see their costs in SPS and DEC; give it a try.
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I think that everything has quite a bit of volatility. Aura might see a bump whenever the new use cases come out, but isn't there a cooldown for switching focuses? I think you have to balance the time and see what is the right balance for adjustments. I do think its good to take advantage of any opportunities when you know aura will be used.
Yes, 24h, unless you use TC.
I still produce some Aura, and still have enough in my stockpile. I see no reason to overdo it since these opportunities are time-sensitive by all indications.
I expect potions to go down even more, unless they add other utility for it, fomo to open packs gonna end soon
That may happen. If new use cases are added for Aura (and they are), that's fine for its producers. Otherwise, they'd have to switch to something else, most likely SPS mining or Research, depending on the type of plot they used.
Great to see the calculations, cost/benefit is going to be a big factor in land going forward.
Midnight Potions at $0.038 is the breakeven point with SPS (if all things remain equal) and it would take 5000 potions at this moment to move the price that far, be interesting to see what movement the pickle sale makes on the Midnight Potion market.
!BBH
That's a good point to share.
Unless sellers move their orders higher. Much easier to juggle with the price of the Midnight potions to obtain breakeven than to do the same with SPS mining, which requires changing PP or the price of SPS.
https://x.com/jewellery_all/status/1926235152063017207
#hive
Thanks.