First Day of the Second Half of the Year
Probably most people reading this knows a thing or two about taking the wrong turn in crypto at one point or another, which seemed right at the time.
Today is Hive Power Up Day (HPUD), the first in the second half of 2025, theoretically the fourth and final bull market year of this cycle.
For me, HPUD also comes as a reminder that I took such a wrong turn at the beginning of the year. Not a big issue, more like a detour due to anticipating a different kind of activity during the year, but let's be honest, after alts pumping at the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025, who would have thought 2025 will continue to be such a ghostly year for alts? At least until now...
What I did at the beginning of the year was to power down my posting account, anticipating multiple pumps for Hive... There were a few, mostly at the beginning of the year. But it turned out I had too much liquid HIVE not doing anything waiting for something that never came. And no, I didn't want to move them to Binance either for the fantastic APR, while it lasted.
At some point, a few months ago, I partially gave up, and powered back up about half of my liquid HIVE. Still kept the other half... hoping. But nope!
It turns out it would have been better had I stayed with my stake intact from the beginning of the year. I made some simple calculations, and at half the year, I would have earned more HP from curation and interest, than the HIVE I earned trading. Maybe the difference was the toll for having enough HIVE liquid at all times, for the opportunities that never came, or not as many as I expected.
Of course, we have to be realistic. Both situations turned out not as beneficial as having HBD in savings for the whole period (HIVE was 38c at the beginning of the year during a major uptrend). But how many did bet on HBD from the beginning of the bull market year? Maybe once the geopolitical situation started to be more complicated, some did (which was the right move on their part). And how many would bet on it right now? That is if we are still in a logic somewhat like the 4-year cycle.
It would be unfair to pick on the small-cap HIVE, when something like ETH had a pretty awful year too, along with pretty much all alts.
It's obvious BTC doesn't want to relinquish its tight grip on the crypto world yet, if we look at the BTC dominance chart:
Maybe in the fall... Maybe... Hmm, that sounds like wishful thinking.
Nonetheless. I continue with my regular Hive routines... Among them, powering up every day and on HPUD:
After all, influence on the reward pool and governance has nothing to do with the price of HIVE in USD. Only with the amount of HP.
Happy Power Up Day!
Posted Using INLEO
I think many other people made a lot of mistakes too, and it all just improves experience and even though it's lessons learned in a bitter way, it's still solid lesson. I don't really have any technical analysis to add, at this point, the only thing we have is hope.
Yes, at this point the best thing we can do is wait. We will know more at the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4. In the meantime, we will see...
We wait, that's definitely all we can lol. It doesn't seem like anyone can do much other than wait
I guess it can look grim for some, but we can be earning every day here and that does add up. I would hope that the price can recover a bit this year to bring back some optimism and enthusiasm. I'll be around anyway.
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What is pretty clear is that things don't look quite the same as in the past. One of Hive qualities that isn't spoken much of is its resilience. With very cheap infrastructure, we can withstand adverse conditions longer than other alts could, probably. So... among the few alts I would bet to make it on the other side of a grim situation, Hive would be one.
I'm still hoping for a better second half of the year, to release some of the accumulated tensions (not all due to crypto - we had tariffs, wars, in my country - raising taxes), and hopefully mark some profits (other than bitcoin).
We've kept going through some tough times. We always seem to have plenty of active witnesses, so the chain is resilient. I suspect it has plenty of spare capacity so we could handle a lot more users.
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Definitely an unexpected turn of events that created this gap between our expectations when the year started and the reality we're facing now. Part of me is a bit hopeful that the second half of the year will look much better. But If I'm being realistic, the chances of that are 50/50 if not less. For now, keep accumulating and let the market do its thing :)
That's a healthy dose of realism! I also think I might get myself drunk with optimism sometimes, and the reality will be much less rosy. I need to prepare for that eventuality too.
Yes, being prepared for either way is probably a great approach to take. I just hope it wouldn't be that bad lol, like if WW3 breaks out sooner than expected.
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Happy HPUD, and nice HPUM. It's hard to tell where prices will go, but if we have to rely on the Koreans to pump the price, then things are wrong. Let's see if there will be an altseason and if Hive will go up then.
Yes, Koreans seem to be out of the picture. Alt season seems more and more like an illusion we are chasing. We had an "episode" in the winter. Let's hope it wasn't the only one.
That's true, at the begin of the year I would never expect it would have been so depressing for hive, 0,60 was probably too good, but a 0,40-0,50 by now was my idea... There will be an other time I guess, only btc is doing well
This doesn't look like a bull year for alts, for sure, even though we had valleys between peaks in the past too, but many alts are closer to their 52w lows than their 52w highs, for example, without even considering ATHs.
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