RE: Bitcoin's 1% Problem: What a 14% Share of Global Money Would Mean for Its Price

The caveats section is what makes this readable. Most versions of this chart get shared as if the $1.13M number were a forecast, and you were careful to say it is not: no fixed pool, capital does not move in a vacuum, and market cap is not price discovery.
If I had to bet on which assumption breaks first, I would say order book depth, not the second-round effects on gold and the dollar. I watch this from a small, illiquid market, and the gap between what an asset is "worth" on paper and what someone will actually pay you for it is where reality shows up. Gold and the dollar have deep markets and central banks willing to lean against a move. A thin order book has nobody to lean on it.
Which one would you actually pick?