How Do You See the End of Year in Crypto Markets?
We are almost at the end of "Rektember" and there was no rekting, other than a little scare for some investors on 9/11 (hmm, I just realized that that dreadful day is written 911, same as the emergency number in the US; anyone thinks it was a coincidence?).
According to crypto folklore, next month would be "Uptober", when crypto markets would start recovering after the losses in September.
But now that we will likely have had a boring September with a sideways market price evolution, in general, what does that say about the reliability of the crypto folklore regarding "Uptober"? Are we going to really see a rally in October?
Would you be surprised if the SEC might have another say in this? Their rulings for the delayed spot bitcoin ETF applications are coming around mid October. By the number of losses or warnings in a row they registered in different lawsuits, I don't see them taking a hard negative stance on these application, and opening themselves to another round of criticism and attacks from more powerful adversaries. The "worst" they can do is delay again, in my opinion.
At the previous delays, I believed there is a chance at least one of the applications will be approved in October. I am more reserved now, as my feeling is nobody with any say in this wants to start anything major until after the bitcoin's halving.
Maybe a small or short bump up at the end of 2023, but short or insignificant enough not to create any major waves and changes in the sentiment in the market.
I also expect shortly before the bitcoin's halving, to have some excitement built up for the event, but that would be a bad time to buy unless someone wants to make a short time move, since there is often a selloff after halvings.
Personally, I hoped to have a significant uptrend toward the end of the year. But I started to be more reserved about that possibility. I may be wrong, but it is possible bulls will not have major reasons to be excited until some time after the halving, in which case the bull market might extend until 2025.
How Do You See the End of Year in Crypto Markets?
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I still think there will be an uptrend towards the end of the year... The interest rate hikes have to end sooner or later.. And risk(y) assets are going to do well thereafter! (Not financial advice of course haha)
I wonder if the expectation of no more rate hikes hasn't been included in the prices already (by remaining stable). Maybe the actual announcements will generate a trend upward, but maybe not really strong. Although I'd be happy to be proven wrong on this assumption. :)
Hehe let's wait and see!
Hello @gadrian. This is very interesting about bitcoin halving. I need to look this up. I will agree with you about the end of the year about an upward trend. I'm very tired of SEC and their interference with the crypto market. There should be a law against SEC's involvement trying to destroy peoples hopes and dreams. It's just plain wrong. I looked up bitcoin halving where miners get rewarded with bitcoin. This is interesting, so the value of btc goes down during halving? Thank you. Barb !BBH !CTP 😄⭐⭐
It's a complex situation. Theoretically, it should go down because that means rewards for miners are halved afterwards and the security of the chain diminishes.
In practice, halvings (particularly bitcoin's) are looked upon as a positive thing from the price action point of view. Immediately after halving we usually have a "sell the news" kind of price action, during the year before the halving (many months before), and especially a few months after the halving we have positive price action. After the halvings, we had major bull runs in the past.
Oh good that sounds positive to have major bull runs in the past, so hopefully this time we will have bull runs in our near future! 🌟👍😀
Im really not sure tbh. I think things can go either way. One thing is for sure, my phasers are set to buy and I have some serious stacking fomo!
Yeah, right now, I'm about the same.
I love your stacking fomo! One thing I need to better tune for the next cycle is to keep more dry powder for the late phase of the bear market.
The fun will commence after the halving. Until then it's nothing but noise.
I pretty much have the same feeling. There might be some small trends until then, but nothing we would consider "fun". :)
Exactly
As far as my experience is concerned, I would like to say here that the market is looking at $35,000 for me by the end of this year.
That would be quite great! Let's see if you'll be right...
I expect sideways movement until a major news/development happens. Bitcoin Halving might be the most concrete one, and I'm hoping this is the bringer of the bull market.
There have been some major developments during the bear market. They are soon buried under the general market sentiment. Until the market is ready to move on, developments are almost ignored.
It's so interesting how something that is normally a negative thing for the security of a POW chain is looked upon as one of the most positive market movers in terms of price.
I hope the uptober will be real
We need a pump!
We will see. No signs of that so far. But usually, they don't come pre-announced. :)
I expect the market to go sideways for the most part. I just don't see people going into any risk on mode right now with the economy.
Yes, the economy is still a very important factor during this bear market.
Not much hopes. But not get any worse will be good
Sideways movement is worse after a long time. But I guess whatever comes, we'll have to deal with it. As individuals, we'll be better than businesses though.
Can we still see the market goes up before this year ends
Maybe. But if it does, I don't expect any fireworks, and it may come back down if it goes up before the halving.
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