RE: Gods Unchained - Magic Meta Report (March 2022)
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All of the numbers are from mythic games played during the month of March. This includes the CSR through part of the shift towards Aggro Light, and the next wave of reports (after Death) will be even further condensed to highlight shifts in these numbers at a more granular level.
Speaking of, I don't think Leyhoard has been completely discounted by Magic players. While I fully expected Leyhoard's metrics to drop after the nerf, here are some preliminary numbers for mythic over the last 3-30 days:
| DAYS | Play Rate | Copies | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 | 33.1% | 1.89 | 38.3% |
| Last 15 | 35.8% | 1.90 | 49.3% |
| Last 7 | 36.8% | 1.89 | 49.6% |
| Last 3 | 40.6% | 1.87 | 50.1% |
This is from "Card Rankings" for Leyhoard Hatchling on GU Decks, but the trend is clear: Magic players initially dumped the card before working it back in for slightly improved results.
The slightly positive win rate in this last Weekend Ranked is actually surprising given the entirety of the first page of cards played for Magic is filled with negative (<50%) win rates. . . except for Leyhoard Hatchling.
Out of curiousity, are you speaking as a Magic player or from your experience playing against Magic?
My take is that Leyhoard Hatchling is no longer a free deploy without appyling additional discounts, but it's still a 3/3 with Deal 4 for just 2 mana. That's like combining a better version of Starshard Bolt with Black Jaguar without paying extra. It takes a bit more patience to pull off, but the impact when played is solid.
I'm speaking as someone who plays all the Gods haha but that is interesting. Card Draw Magic seemed mostly dead after the CSR nerf and that's where Leyhoard shined the most; perhaps it's making a comeback with the new expansion? It certainly doesn't go into any combo decks, so the only other type is Control Magic which I can maybe see it working. Control Magic has less draw than CDM though so it won't usually be <3 mana.
From what I can tell with early numbers (before we dig into a larger sampling), Magic struggled to deal with Aggro Light (pre-nerf) until it settled on Control Magic as the least bad match-up. In other words, Magic spent the last Weekend Ranked throwing the kitchen sink at Aggro decks, and a creature/removal combo fit right into that mindset.
Beyond that, I think Control Magic was still a losing match-up (I remember seeing a low 40's win rate against Aggro Light), but everything was doing worse (high 30's). I don't fault you for believing Leyhoard was pushed to the back burner, though. It's been a weird couple weeks with meta being so "extra" as of late ;P