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candy49
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@candy49
0
6 days ago
uk
Will Natalie Elphicke's defection to Labour hurt the Labour party?
Some described Natalie Elphicke's defection to Labour as the equivalent of a Corbynista like Zarah Sultana joining the Tories. In many ways it's worse. Whatever people think of…
@candy49
0
13 days ago
uk
Only Savanta got the opinion polling for last Thursday's elections right
The other pollsters missed quite badly. For example, here are the final opinion polls for the London Mayor elections, compared to the actual result: [source](
@candy49
0
about 1 month ago
uk
Nicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell is charged with embezzlement
He's been charged with embezzling SNP funds, while he was party leader. It's not yet clear how much Nicola Sturgeon knew and whether she'll be charged too. The big question is…
@candy49
0
about 1 month ago
uk
What do local council by-elections tell us about the upcoming general election?
Unlike opinion polls, council by-elections show us what people who actually show up to vote are thinking. There have been 168 council by-elections since the Local Elections in…
@candy49
0
about 2 months ago
uk
Reform surges to 15% in Yougov poll
YouGov has been persistently showing low scores for Tories and high scores for Reform. This might be to do with sampling issues - instead of a random sample of people, they polll…
@candy49
0
2 months ago
uk
What really caused the Tory drubbing in 1997?
There's been a lot of re-writing of history about the 1997 general election, mainly by people who were small children at the time, or who were born afterwards. They look at the…
@candy49
0
2 months ago
uk
Will there be an election in May?
Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party has been working really hard to move the opinion polling dial. Since November 2023, National Insurance has been cut by 4% (at a total cost of…
@candy49
0
2 months ago
ireland
Are opinion polls reliable?
The Republic of Ireland has just had a referendum to amend their constitution. There were two amendments proposed. One was to change references to "marriage" and replace it with…
@candy49
0
3 months ago
uk
The surprising results of the Rochdale by-election
I don't mean the winner George Galloway, I mean the man who came second, independent candidate Dave Tully. Tully owns a car repair business in Rochdale, and only decided to…
@candy49
0
3 months ago
uk
Will the Speaker survive?
So - we had shenanigans in Parliament last Wednesday. The SNP had an "Opposition Day". What does that mean? Well, the elected government controls the parliamentary schedule…
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